Published: May 02, 2008 04:14 pm            

Missing the whole box in the Democratic gubernatorial race

Four years ago, Republican Mitch Daniels was coursing through Indiana in RV1 with a distinctly articulated vision and a roadmap that vowed a Hoosier “comeback.” Whether you like the governor or loathe him, there is no denying that he put forth a plan that has generated great controversy and considerable action.

After ruling the governor’s office for 16 years, Indiana Democrats seemed devoid of ideas. More than a year ago, after party leaders such as Bart Peterson and John Gregg took a pass, Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger stepped forward, followed a few months later by former congresswoman Jill Long Thompson. They spent much of the last half of 2007 building campaigns and raising money. It all comes to a head this month as they battle for the Democratic nomination.

The challenge is what normally would have been a marquee race has become obscured by the epic Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton presidential primary. The tax rebellion of 2007 cost more than 30 percent of Hoosier mayors their jobs. Gov. Daniels announced his tax reforms last October and the Kernan-Shepard Commission issued its report of 27 recommendations last December. Through it all, Schellinger and Thompson were largely mute. The party of no ideas found itself seeking leaders who ducked the most profound issues of the day. To contrast, in 1972 Doc Bowen ran and won the governorship by articulating a distinct property tax reform package.

Finally, last month, they began weighing in, only to find the presidential race sucking away the oxygen. I monitor Indiana and national media everyday for coverage of interest to Indiana elected officials and business leaders. For the past several weeks, more than half the content of my Daily Wire publication has been about the Clinton triad and Obama.

This past week is a case in point as Schellinger released a 16-page proposal on health care reforms. Like his jobs proposal two weeks prior, there is some real substance. He talked of making health care accessible and affordable; reducing costs and increasing accuracy; increasing enrollment and preventative care; and ensuring a future supply of health care workers that are going to be in short supply just as the Baby Boomers begin to retire.

“We have to focus on making sure every Hoosier has access to quality health care,” Schellinger said.

The plan also would make it easier for small businesses to provide health insurance through partnerships and pooling with private insurance companies that would be overseen by the State.

“As someone who runs a small business, I know firsthand the challenges of providing health care to my employees,” Schellinger said.

Thompson, who was traveling the state promoting a three-tiered economic development proposal and a suspension of the gasoline tax, called the plan “costly to taxpayers.” Her campaign manager explained, “Mr. Schellinger’s plan creates more government bureaucracy, puts in place more mandates on businesses and schools, and generally throws more money at the system in the hopes of fixing it. This contrasts significantly with Jill’s approach to health care reform, which through ‘pooling,’ makes health care more affordable and accessible to individuals and businesses, without burdening taxpayers.”

Something else jumped out at us. On Friday, Thompson unveiled her three-tiered jobs program. It’s a great topic on an issue likely to determine the race in November. But Friday is the worst day of the news cycle (unless you think you can get reporters to rework the story for big Sunday newspaper editions, which didn’t happen). The story got lost amidst the coverage of Barack Obama’s Fort Wayne town hall meeting and the Indianapolis 40th anniversary of the Kennedy-King events of 1968.

The good news is, although it took much too long, both Democratic campaigns are now talking about ideas. You can read about Schellinger’s plans at www.jimschellinger.com and Thompson’s at www.hoosiersforjill.com.

Two recent polls show the Schellinger-Thompson race within the margin of error. The problem for these two Democrats is that in less than two weeks — once the Pennsylvania primary ends on April 22 — the attention to the presidential race is going to be extraordinary. Even in this “window” we’ve had Obama course through the state with a bus tour while Bill and Hillary Clinton were hitting another six cities — on top of the 19 they and daughter Chelsea have already visited.

Who stands to win this obscured Democratic primary? Schellinger has roared back from a 30 percent deficit in the Research 2000 poll. But Thompson had a 15 percent lead among women and 16 percent lead among African-Americans — the two very groups most likely to turn out in the Obama-Clinton race.

The winner is likely to be influenced and determined by outflows from the presidential campaign. If the polls later this month show the race within the margin of error, it simply could go either way. I’d give Schellinger an edge in the money, field work and momentum, but Thompson appears to be better positioned to feed off the presidential campaigns.

The winner gets to face Gov. Daniels, fresh off a big property tax reform push from the Indiana General Assembly, a campaign war chest that will eventually approach $20 million, and a penchant for dispensing ideas that often emanate from outside the proverbial box.

At this point, Indiana Democrats have a long, long way to go to even get close to the box.

— Brian Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana online at www.howeypolitics.com.

        

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